EV calculator: what this bet is actually worth
Your odds, your win probability, your stake — the expected value in dollars, the ROI, and the win rate you'd need just to break even. Get the probability from the no-vig calculator for the market's honest number.
Set the numbers to see the value.
How it works
EV per dollar = p × (decimal odds − 1) − (1 − p). The break-even rate is just the implied probability of your price — at −110 it's 52.38%, which is why the classic −110 grind loses: most cappers don't clear it. A bet is only +EV when your probability beats the price's implied probability — that difference is the edge shown above.
Frequently asked questions
How is betting EV calculated?
EV per dollar = p × (decimal odds − 1) − (1 − p), where p is the true win probability. At -110 you need 52.38% to break even; anything less is a losing bet no matter how it feels.
Where do I get the win probability?
Best practice: strip the vig from the sharpest market you can find (use the no-vig calculator) and use that fair probability. Your own estimate works too — but garbage probability in, garbage EV out.
Standard formulas on numbers you provide — not betting advice. 21+ where applicable. Gambling problem? Call 1‑800‑GAMBLER.