Is tonight's jackpot worth a ticket?
We compute the real expected value of a Powerball or Mega Millions ticket — after the lump‑sum cash discount, taxes, and the chance you'd have to split the jackpot — not the headline number on the billboard.
How we get the real number
- Cash, not annuity. The billboard jackpot is a 30‑year annuity; we use the lump‑sum cash value, which is what the prize is actually worth today.
- After tax. A big win is taxed — 37% federal plus your state. Pick your state on each game's page.
- Split risk. As the jackpot grows, more people play — so the chance you'd share the prize rises. We fold that in.
Frequently asked questions
Is the lottery ever worth playing on expected value?
Almost never. After the lump-sum cash discount, taxes, and the chance of splitting a big jackpot, even record jackpots usually return well under a dollar for every dollar spent.
Why is the cash value so much lower than the jackpot?
The advertised jackpot is paid as a 30-year annuity. The lump sum is what the prize is worth today — typically a little under half the headline number.