Is tonight's jackpot worth a ticket?
We compute the real expected value of a Powerball or Mega Millions ticket — after the lump‑sum cash discount, taxes, and the chance you'd have to split the jackpot — not the headline number on the billboard.
When is it least bad to play?
On expected value, never — but it isn't equally bad. A ticket's return climbs as the jackpot grows… up to a point. Past about $1.5 billion, so many people pile in that your expected share of the jackpot (if you win) falls faster than the prize grows — so the giant record jackpots are actually among the worst bets.
Powerball return per $1 in a no‑state‑tax state (federal 37% only). The curve peaks near 48.2% at a $1.6B jackpot, then declines.
Three levers, biggest impact first:
- Which game: Powerball beats Mega Millions at every jackpot — lower $2 ticket and a friendlier structure.
- When: a ~$1.3–1.6 billion jackpot — the sweet spot before split risk takes over. Skip the record‑breakers.
- Where: a no‑state‑tax state (CA, FL, TX, WA, TN, SD, WY, NH) keeps 3–11% more off the top.
The least‑bad ticket: a ~$1.5 billion Powerball bought in a no‑tax state — and even that hands back only about 48.2% of what you put in. It's entertainment, not an investment.
How we get the real number
- Cash, not annuity. The billboard jackpot is a 30‑year annuity; we use the lump‑sum cash value, which is what the prize is actually worth today.
- After tax. A big win is taxed — 37% federal plus your state. Pick your state on each game's page.
- Split risk. As the jackpot grows, more people play — so the chance you'd share the prize rises. We fold that in.
Frequently asked questions
Is the lottery ever worth playing on expected value?
Almost never. After the lump-sum cash discount, taxes, and the chance of splitting a big jackpot, even record jackpots usually return well under a dollar for every dollar spent.
Why is the cash value so much lower than the jackpot?
The advertised jackpot is paid as a 30-year annuity. The lump sum is what the prize is worth today — typically a little under half the headline number.