Is Mega Millions worth it right now?
Not worth it — current jackpot $489,000,000, next draw Friday, June 26 at 11:00 PM EDT.
Prize tiers & odds
Mega Millions applies a built‑in random 2×–10× multiplier to non‑jackpot prizes; amounts below are the average per tier (used in the EV math).
| Match | Prize | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jackpot | $489,000,000 | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| Match 5 | $3,000,000 | 1 in 12,629,232 |
| Match 4 + Mega Ball | $30,000 | 1 in 893,761 |
| Match 4 | $1,500 | 1 in 38,859 |
| Match 3 + Mega Ball | $600 | 1 in 13,965 |
| Match 3 | $30 | 1 in 607 |
| Match 2 + Mega Ball | $30 | 1 in 665 |
| Match 1 + Mega Ball | $21 | 1 in 86 |
| Mega Ball only | $15 | 1 in 35 |
Frequently asked questions
Is Mega Millions worth playing right now?
No. At the current jackpot a $5 ticket is worth only about 22.8% of its price after the cash discount, taxes, and split risk.
What would the jackpot need to be to break even?
In practice, never — as the jackpot grows more tickets sell, so the rising chance of splitting it cancels the bigger prize. Even a $5 billion jackpot stays slightly −EV after taxes.
Tax figures are estimates (federal 37% top rate plus the state's top marginal rate on lottery winnings) and ticket‑sales/split estimates are modeled — your actual outcome and tax will differ. For entertainment only.