Is Powerball worth it right now?
Not worth it — current jackpot $905,000,000, next draw Monday, August 10 at 10:59 PM EDT.
Advertised (annuity) jackpot
$905,000,000
Lump-sum cash value
$391,900,000 (43.3% of annuity)
Ticket price
$2
Jackpot odds
1 in 292,201,338
Overall odds (any prize)
1 in 24.9
Estimated tickets sold this draw
168,732,518
Expected jackpot share if you win
76% (split risk)
Naive EV (annuity, no tax or split)
$1.42
Real EV per ticket (cash, federal 37% only)
-$1.16
Cents back per $1 spent
42.2%
Break-even jackpot
Never — still −EV at $5B
Prize tiers & odds
| Match | Prize | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jackpot | $905,000,000 | 1 in 292,201,338 |
| Match 5 | $1,000,000 | 1 in 11,688,054 |
| Match 4 + Powerball | $50,000 | 1 in 913,129 |
| Match 4 | $100 | 1 in 36,525 |
| Match 3 + Powerball | $100 | 1 in 14,494 |
| Match 3 | $7 | 1 in 579.8 |
| Match 2 + Powerball | $7 | 1 in 701.3 |
| Match 1 + Powerball | $4 | 1 in 92.0 |
| Powerball only | $4 | 1 in 38.3 |
Frequently asked questions
Is Powerball worth playing right now?
No. At the current jackpot a $2 ticket is worth only about 42.2% of its price after the cash discount, taxes, and split risk.
What would the jackpot need to be to break even?
In practice, never — as the jackpot grows more tickets sell, so the rising chance of splitting it cancels the bigger prize. Even a $5 billion jackpot stays slightly −EV after taxes.
Tax figures are estimates (federal 37% top rate plus the state's top marginal rate on lottery winnings) and ticket‑sales/split estimates are modeled — your actual outcome and tax will differ. For entertainment only.